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A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument

Franceschi, Paul (2010) A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument. [Journal (On-line/Unpaginated)]

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Abstract

In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument based on a third type of solution, by contrast to, on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and, on the other hand, the Eckhardt et al. analysis. I begin by strengthening both competing models by highlighting some variations of their original models, which renders them less vulnerable to several objections. I then describe a third line of solution, which incorporates insights from both Leslie and Eckhardt's models and fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA. I argue then that this two-sided analogy casts new light on the reference class problem. This leads finally to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more plausible than the original one.

Item Type:Journal (On-line/Unpaginated)
Keywords:Doomsday argument, two-urn case, emerald case, thought experiment, probability theory
Subjects:Philosophy > Logic
Philosophy > Epistemology
ID Code:7044
Deposited By:Franceschi, Paul
Deposited On:18 Oct 2010 12:04
Last Modified:11 Mar 2011 08:57

References in Article

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Delahaye, Jean-Paul. 1996. “Recherche de modèles pour l’argument de l’apocalypse de Carter-Leslie.” manuscrit.

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———. 1996. The End of the World: the science and ethics of human extinction London: Routledge.

Sober, Eliott. 2003. “An Empirical Critique of Two Versions of the Doomsday Argument - Gott’s Line and Leslie’s Wedge.” Synthese 135-3: 415-430.

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