?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=Wedding+connectionist+and+algorithmic+modelling+towards+forecasting+Caulerpa+taxifolia+development+in+the+north-western+Mediterranean+sea&rft.creator=Aussem%2C+Alex&rft.creator=Hill%2C+David.&rft.subject=Ecology&rft.subject=Artificial+Intelligence&rft.subject=Dynamical+Systems&rft.subject=Neural+Nets&rft.subject=Statistical+Models&rft.description=We+discuss+the+use+of+supervised+neural+networks+as+a+metamodelling+technique+for+discrete+event+stochastic+simulation+in+order+to+reduce+significantly+the+computational+burden+involved+by+discrete+simulations.+A+sophisticated+computer+model%2C+coupling+a+Geographical+Information+System+with+a+stochastic+discrete+event+simulator%2C+has+been+developed+to+anticipate+the+propagation+of+the+green+alga+%7B%5Cem+Caulerpa+taxifolia%7D+in+the+North-Western+Mediterranean+sea.+The+simulation+model+provides+reliable+predictions%2C+a+couple+of+years+in+advance%2C+of%3A+i)+the+local+expansion+patterns+of+the+alga%2C+ii)+the+increase+of+%7B%5Cem+C.+taxifolia%7D+biomass+and+iii)%2C+the+covered+surfaces.+However+because+the+algorithmic+model+accounts+for+spatial+interactions+and+anthropic+dispersion%2Factivities+such+as+eradication%2C+introduction+of+specific+predators+etc.%2C+simulations+are+extremely+time+and+memory+consuming.+Therefore%2C+to+reduce+the+computational+burden%2C+a+neural+network+was+successfully+trained+on+artificially+generated+data+provided+by+the+simulation+runs+to+provide+accurate+forecasts+12+years+in+advance+along+with+associated+confidence+intervals.+The+ability+of+the+neural+networks+to+capture+the+underlying+physics+of+the+phenomena+is+clearly+illustrated+by+several+preliminary+experiments+on+a+large+coastal+area.+The+neural+network+is+able+to+construct%2C+on+this+site%2C+estimates+of+the+%7B%5Cem+Caulerpa+taxifolia%7D+expansion+12+years+in+advance+in+good+agreement+with+the+simulation+trajectories.&rft.date=1999&rft.type=Journal+(Paginated)&rft.type=PeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpostscript&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fcogprints.org%2F549%2F2%2FEcol_Mod_Caulepra99.ps&rft.identifier=++Aussem%2C+Alex+and+Hill%2C+David.++(1999)+Wedding+connectionist+and+algorithmic+modelling+towards+forecasting+Caulerpa+taxifolia+development+in+the+north-western+Mediterranean+sea.++%5BJournal+(Paginated)%5D+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fcogprints.org%2F549%2F