"5185","Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact","Evidence from social psychology suggests that econometricians will avoid evidence that disconfirms their beliefs. Two beliefs of econometricians were examined: (1) Econometric methods provide more accurate short-term forecasts than do other methods; and (2) more complex econometric methods yield more accurate forecasts. A survey of 21 experts in econometrics found that 95% agreed with the first statement and 72% agreed with the second. A review of the published empirical evidence yielded little support for either of the two statements in the 41 studies. The method of multiple hypotheses was suggested as a research strategy that will lead to more effective use of disconfirming evidence. Although this strategy was suggested in 1890, it has only recently been used by econometricians.","http://cogprints.org/5185/","Armstrong, J. Scott","UNSPECIFIED","       <span class=\"person_name\">Armstrong, J. Scott</span>     (1978)  <a href=\"http://cogprints.org/5185/\"><em>Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact.</em></a>       [Journal (Paginated)]           ","","1978"