?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=Forecasting+with+Econometric+Methods%3A+Folklore+versus+Fact&rft.creator=Armstrong%2C+J.+Scott&rft.subject=Behavioral+Analysis&rft.description=Evidence+from+social+psychology+suggests+that+econometricians+will+avoid+evidence+that+disconfirms+their+beliefs.+Two+beliefs+of+econometricians+were+examined%3A+(1)%0AEconometric+methods+provide+more+accurate+short-term+forecasts+than+do+other+methods%3B+and+(2)+more+complex+econometric+methods+yield+more+accurate+forecasts.+A+survey+of+21+experts+in+econometrics+found+that+95%25+agreed+with+the+first+statement+and+72%25+agreed+with+the+second.+A+review+of+the+published+empirical+evidence+yielded+little+support+for+either+of+the+two+statements+in+the+41+studies.+The+method+of+multiple+hypotheses+was+suggested+as+a+research+strategy+that+will+lead+to+more+effective+use+of+disconfirming+evidence.+Although+this+strategy+was+suggested+in+1890%2C+it+has+only+recently+been+used+by+econometricians.&rft.date=1978&rft.type=Journal+(Paginated)&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fcogprints.org%2F5185%2F1%2FForecastingWithEconometricMethods.pdf&rft.identifier=++Armstrong%2C+J.+Scott++(1978)+Forecasting+with+Econometric+Methods%3A+Folklore+versus+Fact.++%5BJournal+(Paginated)%5D+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fcogprints.org%2F5185%2F