?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=Adaptive+Probability+Theory%3A+Human+Biases+as+an+Adaptation&rft.creator=Martins%2C+Andr%C3%A9+C.+R.&rft.subject=Decision+Theory&rft.subject=Evolutionary+Psychology&rft.description=Humans+make+mistakes+in+our+decision-making+and+probability+judgments.+While+the+heuristics+used+for+decision-making+have+been+explained+as+adaptations+that+are+both+efficient+and+fast%2C+the+reasons+why+people+deal+with+probabilities+using+the+reported+biases+have+not+been+clear.+We+will+see+that+some+of+these+biases+can+be+understood+as+heuristics+developed+to+explain+a+complex+world+when+little+information+is+available.+That+is%2C+they+approximate+Bayesian+inferences+for+situations+more+complex+than+the+ones+in+laboratory+experiments+and+in+this+sense+might+have+appeared+as+an+adaptation+to+those+situations.+When+ideas+as+uncertainty+and+limited+sample+sizes+are+included+in+the+problem%2C+the+correct+probabilities+are+changed+to+values+close+to+the+observed+behavior.+These+ideas+will+be+used+to+explain+the+observed+weight+functions%2C+the+violations+of+coalescing+and+stochastic+dominance+reported+in+the+literature.&rft.date=2005&rft.type=Preprint&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fcogprints.org%2F4377%2F1%2FAPT06022005.pdf&rft.identifier=++Martins%2C+Andr%C3%A9+C.+R.++(2005)+Adaptive+Probability+Theory%3A+Human+Biases+as+an+Adaptation.++%5BPreprint%5D+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fcogprints.org%2F4377%2F