creators_name: Situngkir, Hokky type: techreport datestamp: 2004-03-17 lastmod: 2011-03-11 08:55:30 metadata_visibility: show title: EPIDEMIOLOGY THROUGH CELLULAR AUTOMATA ispublished: unpub subjects: comp-sci-stat-model subjects: comp-sci-mach-dynam-sys subjects: comp-sci-complex-theory subjects: bio-eco subjects: bio-pop full_text_status: public keywords: epidemiology, cellular automata, spatial model, avian influenza, Indonesia abstract: This paper performs the utilization of cellular automata computational analysis as the dynamic model of spatial epidemiology. Here, explored elementary aspects of cellular automata and its application in analyzing contagious disease, in this case avian influenza disease in Indonesia. Computational model is built and map-based simulation is performed using several simplified data of such transportation through sea in Indonesia, and its accordance with poultries in Indonesia, with initial condition of notified avian influenza infected area in Indonesia. The initial places are Pekalongan, West Java, East Java, and several regions in Sumatera. The result of simulation is showing the spreading-rate of influenza and in simple way and describing possible preventive action through isolation of infected areas as a major step of preventing pandemic. date: 2004 date_type: published institution: Bandung Fe Institute department: Dept. Computational Sociology refereed: FALSE referencetext: Angulo, J. (1987). “Interdisciplinary Approaches in Epidemic Studies – II: Four Geographic Models of the Flow of Contagious Disease”. Social Science Methodology 24(1):57-69. Pergamon. Bartholomew, D.J. (1982). Stochastic Models for Social Process. John Wiley & Sons. Brown, I.H. (2001). “The Pig as an Intermediate host for Influenza A viruses between birds and Human”. International Congress Series 1219:173-178. Elsevier Science. Capua, I. & Alexander, D.J. (2002). “Avian Influenza and Human Health”. Acta Tropica 83:1-6. Elsevier Science. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2004). Influenza Viruses Question and Answers. Department of Health and Human Services. URL: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/h1n2qa.htm Chopard, B. & Droz, M. (1998). Cellular Automata Modeling of Physical Systems. Cambridge University Press. Direktorat Jenderal Bina Produksi Peternakan. (2001). Peta Kawasan Pengembangan Peternakan. Departemen Pertanian Republik Indonesia. URL: http://www.bangnak.go.id Hatta, M. & Kawaoka, Y. (2002). “The Continued Pandemic Threat by Avian Influenza Viruses in Hongkong”. Trends in Microbiology 10(7):340-344. Elsevire Science. Liu, M., He, S., Walker, D., Zhou, N., Perez, D.R., Mo. B., Li, F., Huang, X., Webster, R.G., & Webby, R.J. (2002). “The Influenza Virus Gene Pool in a Poultry Market in South Central China”. Virology 305, 267–275. Elsevier Science. Loud, P. (2003). Map of PELNI Ferry Routes. On-line Map of Indonesia. URL: http://users.powernet.co.uk/mkmarina/indonesia/pelni.gif Mitchell, M., P.T. Hraber, and J.P. Crutchfield (1993), Revisiting the edge of chaos: Evolving cellular automata to perform computations. Complex Systems, 7: pp. 89-130. Newman, M.J. (2002). The Spread of Epidemic Disease on Networks. Working Paper 02-04-020. Santa Fe Institute. Piyawong, W., Twozell, E.H., & Gumel, A.B. (2003). “An Unconditionally Convergent Finite Difference Scheme for the SIR Model”. Applied Mathematics and Computation 146:611-625. Elsevier Science. Rhodes, C.J. & Anderson, R.M. (1996a). “Dynamics in a Lattice Epidemic Model”. Physics Letter A 210:183-188. Elsevier Science. Rhodes, C.J. & Anderson, R.M. (1996b). “Forest-fire as a Model for the Dynamics of Disease Epidemics”. Journal of Franklin Institute 335B(2):199-211. Elsevier Science. Situngkir, H. (2003). Menyambut Fajar Menyingsing Teori Sosial Berbasis Kompleksitas. Makalah disampaikan pada Diskusi Bersama Center for Strategies and International Studies (CSIS) 5 Juni 2003. Bandung Fe Institute. Situngkir, H. & Surya, Y. (2004). Konstruksi Model Berbasis Agen Sistem Ekonomi Keuangan. Working Paper WPA2004. Bandung Fe Institute. Willox, R., Grammaticos, B., Carstea, A.S., & Ramani, A. (2003). “Epidemic Dynamics: Discrete-time and Celluar Automaton Models”. Physica A 328:13-22. Elsevier Science. World Health Organization. (2004). “Avian Influenza A(H5N1)”. Press Release. WHO. URL: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_01_24/en/ Wolfram, S. (1983). “Statistical Mechanics of Cellular Automata”. Reviews of Modern Physics 55:601-644. citation: Situngkir, Hokky (2004) EPIDEMIOLOGY THROUGH CELLULAR AUTOMATA. [Departmental Technical Report] (Unpublished) document_url: http://cogprints.org/3500/1/Aflu.pdf