creators_name: Franceschi, Paul
type: preprint
datestamp: 2002-12-01
lastmod: 2011-03-11 08:55:06
metadata_visibility: show
title: A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument
subjects: phil-sci
full_text_status: public
keywords: Dooomsday argument, indeterminism, reference class problem
abstract: In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument (DA) based on a third type of solution, by contrast to on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and on the other hand, the Eckhardt-Sowers-Sober analysis. I argue that both aforementioned analyses are based on an inaccurate analogy. After discussing the imperfections of both models, I present then a novel model that fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA. This last model also encapsulates both Carter-Leslie's and Eckhardt et al.'s models, and reveals a link with the issue of mind-body dualism. Lastly I argue that this novel analogy, combined with an adequate solution to the reference class problem, leads to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more consensual than the original one.

date: 2002-12
date_type: published
refereed: FALSE
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citation:   Franceschi, Paul  (2002) A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument.  [Preprint]     
document_url: http://cogprints.org/2629/1/doomsday-en.pdf