creators_name: Richters, John E. editors_name: Cicchetti, Dante type: journalp datestamp: 2000-10-14 lastmod: 2011-03-11 08:54:23 metadata_visibility: show title: The Hubble Hypothesis and the Developmentalist's Dilemma ispublished: pub subjects: dev-psy full_text_status: public keywords: paradigm, research methods, statistical significance, causal reasoning, abstract: Developmental psychopathology stands poised at the close of the 20th century on the horns of a major scientific dilemma. The essence of this dilemma lies in the contrast between its heuristically rich open system concepts on the one hand, and the closed system paradigm it adopted from mainstream psychology for investigating those models on the other. Many of the research methods, assessment strategies, and data analytic models of psychology’s paradigm are predicated on closed system assumptions and explanatory models. Thus, they are fundamentally inadequate forstudying humans, who are unparalleled among open systems in their wide ranging capacities for equifinal and multifinal functioning. Developmental psychopathology faces two challenges in successfully negotiating the developmentalist’s dilemma. The first lies in recognizing how the current paradigm encourages research practices that are antithetical to developmental principles, yet continue to flourish. I argue that the developmentalist’s dilemma is sustained by long standing, mutually enabling weaknesses in the paradigm’s discovery methods and scientific standards. These interdependent weaknesses function like a distorted lens on the research process by variously sustaining the illusion of theoretical progress, obscuring the need for fundamental reforms, and both constraining and misguiding reform efforts. An understanding of how these influences arise and take their toll provides a foundation and rationale for engaging the second challenge. The essence of this challenge will be finding ways to resolve the developmentalist’s dilemma outside the constraints of the existing paradigm by developing indigenous research strategies, methods, and standards with fidelity to the complexity of developmental phenomena. date: 1997-01 date_type: published publication: Development and Psychopathology volume: 9 publisher: Cambridge University Press pagerange: 193-229 refereed: TRUE referencetext: Allport. G. W. (1960). The open system in personality theory. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 61. 301-310. Altman, I., & Rogoff, B. (1987). World views in psychol-l ogy: Trait, interactional, organismic, and transactional perspectives. In D. Stokols & I. Altman (Eds.), Hand-book of environmen!al psychology (pp. 740). NewYork: Wiley. American Psychological Association. (1974). Publication manual of the American Psychological Association (2nd ed.). Baltimore: Garamond/Pridemark Press. Anastasi, A. (1958). Differential psychology (3rd ed.). New York: Macmillan. Bakan, D. (1966). The test of significance in psychologi-cal research. Psychological Bulletin, 66, 423-437. Baldwin, J. M. (1895). Mental development of the child and the race: Methods and processes. New York: Macmillan. Beach, F. A., & Jaynes (1956). Studies of maternal re-trieving in rats, III: Sensory cues involved in the lac-tating female’s response to her young. Behaviour, 10, 104-125. Bergman, L. R., & Magnusson, D. (in press). A person-oriented approach in research on developmental psy-chopathology. Development and Psychopathology. Bevan, W. (1991). Contemporary psychology: A tour in-side the onion, American Psychologist, 46, 475-483. Bevan, W., & Kessel, F. (1994). Plain truths and home cooking: Thoughts on the making and remaking of psychology. American Psychologist, 49, 505-509. Bhatara, V. S., McMillin, .I M., & Krummer, M. (1995). Aggressive behavior and fire-setting in a 4-year-old boy associated with ingestion of ground beef contami-nated with bovine thyroid tissue: A case report and review of neuropsychiatric thyrotoxicosis. Journal of Child and Adolescent Psychopharmacology 5, 255- 271. Brandt, L. W. (1973). The physics of the physicist and the physics of the psychologist. International Journal of Psychology, 8, 61-72. Bronfenbrenner, U. (1979). The ecology of human devel-opment: Experiments by nature and design. Cam-bridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Cairns, R. B. 1986). Phenomena lost: Issues in the study of development. In .I. Valsiner (Ed.), The individual subject and scientific psychology (p p. 97-l12). New York: Plenum Press. Cicchetti, D. (1984). The emergence of developmental psychopathology. Child Development, 55, 1-7. Cicchetti, D. (1990). A historical perspective on the disci-pline of developmental psychopathology. In J. Rolf, A. Masten, D. Cicchetti, K. Nuechterlein, & S. Wein-traub (Eds.), Risk and protective factors in the devel-opment of psychopathology (pp. 2-28). New York: Cambridge University Press. Cicchetti, D. (1993). Developmental psychopathology: Reactions, reflections, and projections. Develop- Gigerenzer, G., Swijtink, Z., Porter, T., Daston, L., Beatty, J., & Kruger, L. (1989). The empire of churzce: HOW probability changed science and every-day life. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Glymour, C. (1980). Hypothetico-deductivism is hope-less. Philosophy of Science, 47, 322-325 . Gould, S. J. (1986). Evolution and the triumph of homol-ogy, or why history matters. American Scientist, 74, 60-69. Gould, S. J. (1987). Darwinism defined: Sifting fact from mental Review, 13, 471-502. theory. Discover, 8, 64-70. Cicchetti, D., & Cohen, D. J. (Ed%). (1995a). Develop-mermd psychopathology: Vol. 1. Theory and methods. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Cicchetti, D., & Cohen, D. J. (Eds). (1995b). Develop-mental psychopathology: Vol. 2. Risk, disorder, und adaptation. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Cicchetti, D., & Richters, J. E. (1993). Developmental psychopathology considerations in the study conduct disorder. Development and Psychopathology, 5, 33 I-344. Cicchetti, D., & Rogosch, F. A. (1996). Equifinality and multifinality in developmental psychopathology. De-velopment and Psychopathology, 8, 597-600. Cohen, J. (1990). Things I have learned so far. American Psychologist, 45, 1304-I 3 12. Cohen, J. (1994). The earth is round (p < .05). American Psychologist, 49, 997-1003. Cronbach, L. J. (1957). The two disciplines of scientific psychology. American Psychologist, 12, 671-684. Edwards, W. (1965). A tactical note on the relation be-tween scientific and statistical hypotheses. Psycholog-ical Bulletin, 63, 400-402. Elasser, W. M. (1966). Atom and organism A new ap-proach to theoretical biology. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Elasser, W. M. (1981). Principles of a new biological the-ory: A summary. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 89, 131-150. Emde, R. N. (1994). Individuality, context, and the search for meaning. Child Development, 65, 719-737. Estes, W. K. (in press). Significance testing in psycholog-ical research: Some persisting issues. Psychological Science. Evans, C., & McConnell, T. R. (1941). A new measure of introversion-extroversion. Journal of Psychology, 12, 111-124. Ferguson, L. (1959). Statistical analysis in psychology and education. New York: McGraw-Hill. Feynman, R. (1986). Surely you’re joking, Mr. Feynman! New York: Bantam Books. Fox, R. E. (1996). Charlatanism, scientism, and psycholo-gy’s social contract. American Psychologist, 51, 777- 784. Gerstein, D. R., Luce, R. D., Smelser. N. J., & Sperlich, S. (1988). The behavioral and social sciences: Achievements and opportunities. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Gigerenzer, G., Swijtink, Z., Porter, T., Daston, L., Beatty, J., & Kruger, L. (1989). The empire of churzce: HOW probability changed science and every-day life. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Glymour, C. (1980). Hypothetico-deductivism is hope-less. Philosophy of Science, 47, 322-325 . Gould, S. J. (1986). Evolution and the triumph of homol-ogy, or why history matters. American Scientist, 74, 60-69. Gould, S. J. (1987). Darwinism defined: Sifting fact from theory. Discover, 8, 64-70.Guilford, J. P. (1942). Fundamental statistics in psychol- Loftus, G. R. (1991). On the tyranny of hypothesis testing ogy and education (3rd ed.). New York: McGraw- in the social sciences. Contemporary Psychology, 36, Hill. 102-105. Herrenkohl, L. R., & Rosenberg, P. A. (1972). Exterocep-tive stimulation of maternal behavior in the naive rat. Physiology & Behavior, 8, 595-598. Hinde, R. A. (1992). Developmental psychology in the context of other behavioral sciences. Developmental Psychology, 28, 1018-1029. Loftus, G. R. (1993). Editorial comment. Memory & Cog-nition, 21, 1-3. Hinde, R. A., & Dennis, A. (1986). Categorizing individ-uals: An alternative to linear analysis. International Journal Behavioral Development, 9, 105-l19. Horgan, J. (1996). Why Freud isn’t dead. American Sci-entist, December, 106-l11. Institute of Medicine. (1989). Research on children and adolescents with mental, behavioral, and develop-mental disorders. Washington, DC: National Acad-emy Press. Kagan, J. (1992). Yesterday’s premises, tomorrow’s promises. Developmental Psychology, 28, 990-997. Kagan, J.. Kearsley, R. B., & Zelazo, P. R. (1978). In-fancy: Its place in haman development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Kaplan, H. B. (1996). Toward an understanding of resil-ience: A critical review of definitions and models. In M. D. Glantz, J. Johnson, & L. Huffman (Eds.), Resil-iency and development: Positive life adaptations. New York: Plenum Press. Kavale, K. A., & Fomess, S. R. (1987). The far side of heterogeneity: A critical analysis of empirical subtyp-ing research in learning disabilities. Journal of Learn-ing Disabilities, 20, 374-382. Koch, S. (1959). Psychology: A study of science (Vol. 3). New York: McGraw-Hill. Lykken, D. T. (1968). Statistical significance in psycho-logical research. Psychological Bulletin, 70, 151-159. Lykken, D. T. (1991). What’s wrong with psychology anyway? In D. Cicchetti & W. M. Grove (Eds.), Thinking clearly about psychology (Vol. 1, pp. 3-39). Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press. Mackie, J. L. (1974). The cement of the universe: A study of causation. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Magnusson, D. (1985). Implications of an interaction-al paradigm for research on human development. In-temational Journal of Behavioral Development, 8, 115-137. Magnusson, D., & Allen, V. L. (1983). Implications and applications of an interactional perspective for human development. In D. Magnusson & V. L. Allen (Eds.), Human development: An interactional perspective (pp. 369-387). New York: Academic Press. Magnusson, D., & Bergman, L. (1988). Individual and variable-based approaches to longitudinal research on early risk factors. In M. Rutter (Ed.), Studies of psy-chosocial risk: The power of longitudinal data (pp. 45-61). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Maltz, M. D. (1994). Deviating from the mean: The de-clining significance of significance. Journal of Re-search in Crime and Delinquency, 31, 434-436. Maton, K. I. (1993). A bridge between cultures: Linked ethnographic empirical methodology for culture-an-chored research. American Journal of Community Psychology, 21, 701-121. Koch, S. (1961). Psychological science versus the science-humanism antinomy: Intimations of a significant sci-ence of man. American Psychologist, 16, 629-639. Koch, S., & Leary, D. E. (Eds.). (1992). A century of psychology as science. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association Press. Kuhn, T. S. (1957). The Copernican revolution. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Kuhn, T. S. (1970). The structure of scientific revolutions (2nd ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Kuhn, T. S. (1977). The essential tension. Chicago: Uni-versity of Chicago Press. McCord, J. (1993). Descriptions and predictions: Three problems for the future of criminological research. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 30, 412425. McGuire, W. J. (1983). A contextualist theory of knowl-edge: Its implications for innovation and reform in psychological research. Advances in Experimental .So cial Psychology, 16, 241. Lakatos, I. (1977). The methodology of scientific research programmes :Philosophical papers (Vol. I). J. Wor-ral & E. G. Zahar (Eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge Uni-versity Press. Meehl, P. E. (1954). Clinical versus statistical prediction: A theoretical analysis and review of the evidence. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. Meehl, P. E. (1967). Theory testing in psychology and physics: A methodological paradox. Philosophy of Science, 34, 103-I 15. Laudan, L. (1977). Progress and its problems: Toward a theory of scientific growth. Berkeley: University of California at Berkeley. Leahey, T. H. (1987). A history of psychology: Main car-rents in psychological thought (2nd ed.). New York: Prentice-Hall. Meehl, P. E. (1973). Psychodiagnosis: Selected papers. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press. Meehl, P. E. (1978). Theoretical risks and tabular aster-isks: Sir Karl, Sir Ronald, and the slow progress of soft psychology. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 46, l-42. Lerner, R. M., & Kaufman, M. B. (1985). The concept of development in contextualism. Developmental Re-view, 5, 309-333. Leventhal, L. (1992). Nudging aside Meehl’s paradox. Canadian Psychology, 35, 283-298. Lewin, K. (1931a). The conflict between Aristotelian and Galilean models of thought in contemporary psychol-ogy. Journal of General Psychology, 5, 147-117. Lewin, K. (1931b). Environmental forces in child behav-ior and development. In C. Murchison (Ed.), A hand-book of child psychology (2nd ed., pp. 590-625). Worster, MA: Clark University Press. Meehl, P. E. (1990). Appraising and amending theories: The strategy of Lakatosian defense and two principles that warrant it. Psychological Inquiry. I, 108-141. Mitroff, I., & Featheringham, T. (1974). On systematic problem solving and the error of the third kind. Be-havioral Science, 19, 383-393. Morrison, D. E.. & Henkel. R. E. (Eds.). (1970). The sig-nificance test controversy. Chicago: Aldine. Nagel, E. (1961). The structure of science. New York: Harcourt, Brace. and World. National Advisory Mental Health Council. (1990). Na-tional Plan for Research on Child and Adolescent Mental Disorders. Rockville, MD: National Institute of Mental Health. New York Times. (1990, July 1). Calamities in space. Sec-tion 1. Editorial desk, p. 16. Nunnally, J. C. (1975). Introduction to statistics in psy-chology and education. New York: McCraw~Hill. Overton. W. F. (1984a). World views and their influence on psychological theory and research: Kuhn-Lakatos-Laudan. In H. W. Reese (Ed.), Advances in child Development and behavior (Vol. 18, pp. 19 l-225). New York: Academic Press. Overton, W. F. (1984b). Comments on Beilin’s epistemol-ogy and Palermo’s defense of Kuhn. In H. W. Reese (Ed.). Advances in child development and behavior (Vol. 18, pp. 273-276) . New York: Academic Press. Overton, W. F., & Horowitz, H. A. (1991). Develop-mental psychopathology: Integrations and integra-tions. In D. Cicchetti & S. Toth (Eds.), Rochester Symposium on Developmental Psychopathology: Vol. 3. Models and integrations (pp. 142). Rochester, NY: University of Rochester Press. Pepper, S. C. (1942). World hypotheses. Berkeley: Uni-versity of California. Platt, J. R. (1964). Strong inference: Certain systematic methods of scientific thinking may produce much more rapid progress than others. Science, 146, 347-362. Popper, K. R. (1959). The logic of scientific discovery. London: Hutchinson. Popper, K. R. (1991). Of clouds and clocks: An approach to the problem of rationality and the freedom of man. In D. Cicchetti & W. M. Grove (Eds.), Thinking clearly about psychology.(Vol. 1, pp. 100-l39). Min-neapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press. Radke-Yarrow, M., & Sherman, T. (1990). Hard grow-ing: Children who survive. In J. Rolf, A. Masten, D. Cicchetti, K. Nuechterlein, & S. Weintraub (Eds.), Risk and protective factors in the development of psy-chopathology (pp. 97-l19). New York: Cambridge University Press. Reichenbach, H. (1938). Experience and prediction. Chi-cago: University of Chicago. Richters, J. E. (1996). Disordered views of antisocial children: A late 20th century perspective. In C. Ferris (Ed.), Understanding aggressive behavior in children. New York: New York Academy of Sciences. Richters, J. E.. & Cicchetti, D. (1993a). Editorial: Toward a developmental perspective on conduct disorder. De-velopment and Psvchopathology, 5, 1-4. Richters, J. E., & Cicchetti, D. (1993b). Mark Twain meets DSM-III-R: Conduct disorder, development. and the concept of harmful dysfunction. Development and Psychopathology, 5, 5-29. Robinson, D. N. (1984). The new philosophy of science: A reply to Manicas and Secord. American Psyholo-gist, 39, 920-921. Rorer, L. G. (1991). Some myths of science in psychol-ogy. In D. Cicchetti & W. M. Grove (Ed.). Thinking clearly about psychology (Vol. 1. pp. 61-87). Minne-apolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press. Rozeboom, W. W. (1982). Let’s dump hypothctico-de-ductivism for the right reasons. Philosophy of Sci-ence, 49, 637-647. Russell, J. (1990). Causal explanations in cognitive de-velopment. In G. Butterworth & P. Bryant (Eds.), Causes of development: Interdisciplinary perspectives (pp. 111-134). London: Harvester, Wheatsheaf Hemel Hemstead. Rutter, M., & Garmery. N. (1983). Developmental psy-chopathology. In E. M. Hetherington (Ed.), Carmi-chaels manual of child psychology: Vol. 4. Social and personality development (pp. 775-911). New York: Wiley. Salmon, W. C. (1984). Scientific explanation and the causal Structure of the world. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Sameroff, A. (1995). Developmental systems: Contexts and evolution. In D. Cicchetti & D. Cohen (Eds.), De-velopmental psychopathology: Risk, disorder and ad-uptation (pp. 238-294). New York: Wiley-Intersci-encc. Sameroff, A. J., & Chandler, M. J. (1975). Reproductive risk and the continuum of caretaking casualty. In F. D. Horowitz. M. Hetherington, S. Starr-Salapatek, & G. Siegel (Eds.), Review of child development re-search (pp. 187-244). Chicago: University of Chi-cago Press. Sarason, S. B. (1981). Psychology misdirected. New York: The Free Press. Shadish, W. R. (1995). Philosophy of science and the quantitative-qualitative debates: Thirteen common er-rors. Education and Program Planning, I8, 63-75. Shames, M. L. (1990). On data, methods, and theory: An epistemological evaluation of psychology. Canadian Psychology, 31, 229-238. Smith. P. M., & Torrey. B. B. (1996). The future of the behavioral and social sciences. Science, 271, 61, 1-612. Spemann. H. (1938). Embryonic development and induc-tion. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. Sroufe. L. A., & Rutter, M. (1984). The domain of devel-opmental psychopathology. Child Development, 83, 173-189. Thurstone. L. L. (1938). Primary mental abilities. Chi-cago: University of Chicago Press. Valsiner. J. (Ed.). (1986a). The individual subject and sci-entific psychology. New York: Plenum Press. Valsiner. J. (1986b). Between groups and individuals: Psychologists’ and laypersons’ interpretations of cor-relational findings. In J. Valsiner (Ed.), The individual Subject and scientific psychology (pp. 113-l52). New York: Plenum Press. von Bertalanffy. L. (1968). General system theory. New York: George Braziller. Inc. Waddington. C. H. (1957). The strategy of genes . Lon-don: Allen & Unwin.I citation: Richters, John E. (1997) The Hubble Hypothesis and the Developmentalist's Dilemma. [Journal (Paginated)] document_url: http://cogprints.org/1009/3/s_Dilemma.pdf