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Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact

Armstrong, J. Scott (1978) Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact. [Journal (Paginated)]

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Abstract

Evidence from social psychology suggests that econometricians will avoid evidence that disconfirms their beliefs. Two beliefs of econometricians were examined: (1) Econometric methods provide more accurate short-term forecasts than do other methods; and (2) more complex econometric methods yield more accurate forecasts. A survey of 21 experts in econometrics found that 95% agreed with the first statement and 72% agreed with the second. A review of the published empirical evidence yielded little support for either of the two statements in the 41 studies. The method of multiple hypotheses was suggested as a research strategy that will lead to more effective use of disconfirming evidence. Although this strategy was suggested in 1890, it has only recently been used by econometricians.

Item Type:Journal (Paginated)
Subjects:Psychology > Behavioral Analysis
ID Code:5185
Deposited By:Armstrong, J. Scott
Deposited On:25 Sep 2006
Last Modified:11 Mar 2011 08:56

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