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A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument

Franceschi, Paul (2002) A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument. [Preprint]

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Abstract

In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument (DA) based on a third type of solution, by contrast to on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and on the other hand, the Eckhardt-Sowers-Sober analysis. I argue that both aforementioned analyses are based on an inaccurate analogy. After discussing the imperfections of both models, I present then a novel model that fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA. This last model also encapsulates both Carter-Leslie's and Eckhardt et al.'s models, and reveals a link with the issue of mind-body dualism. Lastly I argue that this novel analogy, combined with an adequate solution to the reference class problem, leads to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more consensual than the original one.

Item Type:Preprint
Keywords:Dooomsday argument, indeterminism, reference class problem
Subjects:Philosophy > Philosophy of Science
ID Code:2629
Deposited By:Franceschi, Paul
Deposited On:01 Dec 2002
Last Modified:12 Sep 2007 17:46

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References in Article

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Bostrom, N. (1997) 'Investigations into the Doomsday argument', Preprint at http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/inv/investigations.html

Bostrom, N. (2002) Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy, New York, Routledge

Chambers, T. (2001) 'Do Doomsday's Proponents Think We Were Born Yesterday?', Philosophy, 76, 443-50

Delahaye, J-P. (1996) 'Recherche de modèles pour l’argument de l’apocalypse de Carter-Leslie', unpublished manuscript

Eckhardt, W. (1993) 'Probability Theory and the Doomsday Argument', Mind, 102, 483-88

Eckhardt, W. (1997) 'A Shooting-Room view of Doomsday', Journal of Philosophy, 94, 244-259

Franceschi, P. (1998) 'Une solution pour l'argument de l'apocalypse', Canadian Journal of Philosophy, 28, 227-46

Franceschi, P. (1999) 'Comment l'urne de Carter et Leslie se déverse dans celle de Hempel', Canadian Journal of Philosophy, 29, 139-56, English translation at http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints

Franceschi, P. (2002) Une application des n-univers à l'argument de l'Apocalypse et au paradoxe de Goodman, doctoral dissertation

Korb, K. & Oliver, J. (1998) 'A Refutation of the Doomsday Argument', Mind, 107, 403–10

Leslie, J. (1992) 'Time and the Anthropic Principle', Mind, 101, 521-40

Leslie, J. (1993) 'Doom and Probabilities', Mind, 102, 489-91

Leslie, J. (1996) The End of the World: the science and ethics of human extinction, London, Routledge

Sober, E. (2003) 'An Empirical Critique of Two Versions of the Doomsday Argument - Gott’s Line and Leslie’s Wedge', to appear in Synthese

Sowers, G. F. (2002) 'The Demise of the Doomsday Argument', Mind, 111, 37-45

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